Sunday, September 21, 2008

Welcome to the USSA, comrades!

If any of you haven't heard what is going on right now in the financial world and in our government, you must be hiding under a rock. Many firms are losing great deals of money and failing. Our government has been nationalizing these firms, and bailing them out, and giving them money, and all manner of other help. Why? They claim that if the firms fail, it will be too great a burden on the American people.

And honestly, it makes me sick that our government would do that.

Why? Well, there used to be a place called the USSR, the Soviet Union. They were pure communists. Communism one form of socialism and is the polar opposite of free market enterprise. It is the absolute lack of freedom. If you share my theological beliefs, it represents the plan of Satan as opposed to the plan of God. To me, it really is that simple and that evil.

So now our government is spending TRILLIONS (yes, that was a TR, not a B) of dollars to bail these companies out, claiming that it is in the best interest of everyone.

So let's see... for many years all these very smart people at these firms have been taking on a lot of risk, and making a lot of money for it. Now that the risk is coming home to roost, they want to walk away from the risk, dump it on the taxpayers, and still keep the money they made for taking the risk in the first place. That certainly doesn't sound fair to me!

Why should people who play by all the rules, work hard, pay their taxes, work to be self-sufficient, volunteer in their communities, obey all the laws, and only take appropriate risks now have to pay for those who took too much risk and simply don't want to pay for it?

Remember... if you answer that it is for the best common good, you are a socialist. Socialism takes away your choices and basically puts a gun to your head and says, "you will pay your taxes so we can choose what to do with your money, or you will go to jail." Much of the taxes we pay today is just a system of redistributing wealth. Rob from the rich (often known as the people who are smarter, wiser, harder-working, etc) to give to the poor (often known as the people who are lazy, and thus don't improve themselves or work as hard). This isn't like Robin Hood, where the rich stole from the poor in the first place. This is stealing hard-earned income from the people who earned it, to give it to the poor. Socialism.

Do you know what the US national debt is right now? It is almost $10 TRILLION dollars. That means every single man, woman, and child in this country owes over $31,000 thanks to the government. And it is growing rapidly. Every year the interest on that debt is over $400 BILLION dollars. That's over $1300 per man, woman, and child in the US. So my little family of four owes around $125,000 in debt, and accrues $5200 or more in interest payments every year. Oh, and we keep adding to that debt each and every year.

Enough is enough! I just wrote e-mails to my 2 senators and my representative in congress, and voiced my opinion that this bailout must stop, and that we must get our country out of debt, now. I hope you all do the same, because until they hear it from enough people, they won't listen.

On our current path, we will be calling each other Comrade within 30 years, because the government will have to nationalize everything private in the US just to pay its debt and avoid a complete world meltdown. They will say they have to do it to save the world, and that is how this formerly-free land will become the most powerful socialist state in history.

The government needs to let these companies that took the risk and made the money fail. It will be hard on everyone in the country, but we need to let it happen to save our country in the long run. No good parent would let their child run around doing whatever they want without consequences, and no good government should remove people's consequences either. Let them fail, let their creditors fail, let the whole system come down on itself so we can raise a new one from the ashes that actually takes care of itself.

But the politicians like their power, and won't do it.

Welcome to the USSA (United Socialist States of America).

Friday, September 05, 2008

Where To Park Your Cash

A friend of mine called me up today. He asked me about where he could find a better interest rate on money in a bank account. As I work in the financial field, it also reminded me how many of our clients have similar questions, and how many people leave money on the table when it comes to the money in their banks.

A little primer on inflation: Some people actually still hide money "under the mattress" in a place where it accumulates no interest. They are losing money every single day, in a very real way. Due to inflation, the money you have today will be worth slightly less tomorrow. In the US, annual inflation averages around the 3-4% range. So if it is 4% this year, that means that $1,000 today will be effectively worth $961 next year if it just sits under your mattress. It will still be $1,000 if you count it, but will only buy $961 of today's goods. Thus, in order to keep your money's value stable, you need to earn 4% on that money in the next year. Anything less and you'll be losing money, and anything more and you'll be gaining money.

Some countries have terrible inflation problems due to bad policy (usually from dictators or highly corrupt governments). Take a look at this heat map around the world, and you will see what I'm talking about. The worst inflation by far is in Zimbabwe, and it just reached 2.2 million % per year! In other words, if it costs you $1 to buy a loaf of bread today, it will cost you $2.2 million to buy that same loaf of bread next year. And we panic when we get close to 5%... This horrible inflation is a direct result of the country's president, Robert Mugabe, and his corruption and nationalization campaigns for the last 20 years. What was once one of the richest of African nations is now in financial ruins.

Ok, so you need to keep up with inflation as best as you can. But if inflation is at 4%, and your bank's checking account only pays less than 1%, you're losing at least 3% of your money in the bank each year. How do you stop the bleeding?

One option that I like is the direct online savings accounts. Big real banks start online-only branches that give you very little service and have everything done electronically. Thus they avoid buildings, employees, and most all other costs. Then they give you a higher rate on your savings account than in their regular "bricks and mortar" banks. Right now you can get rates between 3% and 3.5% at some of these online savings accounts. They have links to your regular bank account and you transfer money back and forth as you wish. They typically have no fees, no minimums, and no restrictions.

If you want to look at a few for reference, try www.ingdirect.com, www.emigrantdirect.com, and www.hsbcdirect.com. And if you want to keep at least $1,000 in as a minimum, you can get a little higher rate at www.dollarsavingsdirect.com, which is also owned by Emigrant Bank. Make sure that where ever you put your money it is FDIC insured in case a bank implodes, and always read all the fine print when it comes to putting your money anywhere.

Tuesday, September 02, 2008

Rankings Or Popularity Contest?

Anyone who knows me could tell you that I am a competitive person by nature. I also enjoy watching others compete. And one thing I love to watch is college football! Unfortunately, every year there are big disagreements between many people about the rankings of those teams, and which teams should be ranked higher than others. No real good answers have been put into effect, as the ongoing (and often heated) argument proves. Currently, college football teams are ranked weekly by 2 major polls, one voted in by members of the associated press, the other by college football coaches. But this presents problems.

Ranking polls and thus all the systems that rely on them (the BCS rankings in part) are inherently flawed due to human nature, greed, a team's viewability, a team's history, and more. Coaches have absolutely no incentive to cast votes in the most accurate and uniform manner, and neither does the press for that matter.

A possible solution to rankings of teams uses one of these very weaknesses in the current system (greed) as the method of really deciding how well a team played each week. And thus, collectively, how it has performed throughout the season. How? Use people with "skin in the game" so to speak: bookmakers. Every week, bookmakers around the world put odds on NCAA football games. All the best odds makers in the world typically zero in on a certain spread, over/under, etc. If they're right, they make money, if they're wrong by much (cumulatively) they'll lose their shirt. So they have a vested interest in getting the spreads as close as possible to the correct result.

So how do we use this? No pre-season polls, first of all. All teams start equally ranked. Before each game, its official spread is locked in. If a team beats its spread (win or lose), it gets bonus ranking points. If it doesn't equal its spread, it loses bonus ranking points. The more it beats the spread by, the more bonus points it gets, and vice-versa. Rankings are then decided simply by team record, with the tiebreaker being how many bonus ranking points each team has. Thus, after week 1, roughly half the teams will be 1-0, and the other half will be 0-1. No 0-1 team will rank higher than any 1-0 team, and the top ranked team will be the 1-0 team with the largest number of bonus ranking points (ie the team that beat its spread last week by the most points). This will incentivize both teams to play hard for the entire 60 minutes of the game.

Of course, you may say, "Wait, would this kind of system entice strong teams to schedule a bunch of pansies, and also penalize teams in supposedly "strong" conferences?" A valid concern indeed. And one that can easily be addressed with one additional numerical modifier. It could be called a "strength of schedule" modifier, much like the one which has been used in the BCS system. For example, the combined winning percentage of all your opponents could constitute the modifier. We just need to get people to sit down and work out the math, and try to take into account all variables.

Sure it has its potential problems, but it is a start. And breaking the status quo is the only way that many great teams and players out there will ever be able to compete (in the rankings) on a level playing field.